Current market situation seems different. High debt is driving market. People are getting poorer still feeling rich. Astrologers expected meltdown in financial market. But it did not materialize. Cardinal cross kept all in dark. Sensing liquidity tightening happening in various global economy, it is now nerve testing game. Once debt will get sucked up, we will get clear picture.
3. RBI restricts conversion of rupee loan to Dollar loan which was a route for corporate to delay payment. The regulator has disallowed the refinancing of rupee loans through ECBs in a circular dated 22 April, 2014 with the understanding that the risk remains within the Indian banking system. It will put pressure on refinancing option of corporate and they would have to sell their assets.
4. Indian Interest rates are still very high. Inflation is not in control. Indian growth is getting hurt because of lack of liquidity.
5. Singapore is growing 1 % ( 9 % in 2008), Brazil 1-2 %( 6% in 2008), Russia 2% (8% in 2008). So growth slipped for many countries.
6. In early 2012, China was leveraged to the hilt with debt/GDP of 150 per cent. That number is well over 200 per cent now. Then, China needed 1.4 units of debt to generate 1 unit of GDP growth. It now needs 2 units of debt.
Russian economy is interesting at present. They are facing sanctions on Ukraine issue. Expect some crackdown from Europe /USA. Russia is tapping China to survive. In Parallel, it is putting pressure on Ukraine for Gas payment.
Lets get to macro-economic scenario at present
1. US FED is cutting its QE program (currently $45 Billion). If they tapper more, Indian liquidity would get impact. Tapering depends on growing economic conditions at US. US GDP showed slippage to 0.1% in first quarter of 2014. Means all is not well in US economy. After showing sign of improvement, It may slip back or may need more QE.
2. Indian corporate loan is 192000 crores on top 100 corporates. High NPA means pressure on Indian banks. Banks could recover only 20% last year (April-December) of whole amount.
Aries, Virgo, Libra, and Pisces are four key signs which are highly active. Key birthdates are 4-6 and 10-12 dates. So if you belong to these signs and these dates range , do expect high expense and inflow.
Job market in US is not so amazing. Infact stable. Similar signals coming from other countries. Corporate are cutting jobs or cutting cost to bring down debt. Cash is a king now or will be in near future. Africa, Brazil, and India are seeing election time and have high hopes on stable governments.
Recently the pattern in the curve is looking a little like 2007. Money is moving from oil to metal. GAS is new king. Russia ukraine fight is based on gas prices. Indian government is also strugelling on gas prices.